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The interaction between cavity photons and molecular vibrations leads to the formation of vibrational polaritons, which have demonstrated the ability to influence chemical reactivity and change material characteristics. Although ultrafast spectroscopy has been extensively applied to study vibrational polaritons, the nonlinear relationship between signal and quantum state population complicates the analysis of their kinetics. Here, we employ a second-order kinetic model and transform matrix method (TMM) to develop an effective model to capture the nonlinear relationship between the two-dimensional IR (or pump–probe) signal and excited state populations. We test this method on two types of kinetics: a sequential relaxation from the second to the first excited states of dark modes, and a Raman state relaxing into the first excited state. By globally fitting the simulated data, we demonstrate accurate extraction of relaxation rates and the ability to identify intermediate species by comparing the species spectra with theoretical ground truth, validating our method. This study demonstrates the efficacy of a second-order TMM approximation in capturing essential spectral features with up to 10% excited state population, simplifying global analysis and enabling straightforward extraction of kinetic parameters, thus empowering our methodology in understanding excited-state dynamics in polariton systems.